Mumbai terror attacks

I don’t know how or why, but this morning I got up at 4:30 am and couldn’t go back to sleep. So, I made myself some coffee and proceeded to check my email and Google news reader. One of the feeds that I read mentioned about the usage of Twitter, blogs, flickr etc in reporting the Mumbai blasts. I clearly remember thinking why it is a story today when the blasts happened quite a while ago. I attributed it to a reposting and went on. Around 6:00 am, I went to Rediff to check on the cricket score when the enormity of the terrorist attack hit. I switched on the TV and watched for a while, but after a while I just couldn’t take the tamasha that these people were turning it into.

I was angry, really angry. The anger prompted me to write an open letter to our country’s leadership.

To

Dr Manmohan Singh

Prime Minister

Republic of India

Dear Dr Singh,

By now, you would be well aware of the attacks in Mumbai. Though I live in Bangalore, I feel that these were an attack on me. It was just a chance that it took place in a different location to where I was, each of the persons killed could well have been me. They were just individuals who were going out for dinner or returning home from work or brave officers who jumped in knowing very well that they may not return alive. We have seen many attacks in the past and the response from you and your members of Cabinet have never been more than empty words. I am afraid for the future of our country, because I feel that the people of India have reached a tipping point and unless you act decisively, the outcome will be an end of the India that we know and love.

Here are a few things that I would like you to do

- You keep saying that terrorism has no religion. Yet, we have seen an amazing game of double standards being played out in the media. An elaborate case has been concocted against Pragya and Lt Col Purohit and the media has gone to town heralding the rise of “Hindu terrorism”. Can we have the same sense of purpose in all terrorism cases? Do not let vote bank politics play a role in the investigation

- Do not negotiate with the terrorists. They may kill a few hostages, yes that is damaging for the people and their families, but the damage to the country that is caused by your capitulation is far worse.

- If reports are true and Pakistan is behind these attacks, we need to take decisive action against them, even if it means large causalities on our side. Otherwise we will forever be known as a weak state that will keep facing attacks like this one.

Going by the past record of your government, I have 0% confidence that any of my wishes will come through. But I live in hope, because the alternative is to live in fear. That would mean giving in to the terrorists.

Sincerely

An Indian Citizen

Futures trading

I had been looking at futures trading for a while, but always maintained a healthy distance from it. My friend Shashi was constantly pushing me to give it a try, my relationship manager at ICICI kept calling me every day with updates on the market and trading strategies, but I had resisted.

The thing that changed my mind was the falls that we saw in October. I could only watch as every single investment that I had made (stocks, mutual funds, PMS schemes) went down in value by 25, 35 and even 50% in some cases. It seemed that the least risky way to make money was going short. Given that we follow a same day settlement, short selling in the cash market meant day trading. In my view, that is just gambling and it has never worked for me in the past.

So, I have made my first tentative steps trading in futures, a month ago. I set a few ground rules for myself before I started
- Set aside a small amount of money and do not take positions beyond this. Ensure there is adequate margins available so that the broker does not close out the position
- No day trading, I don't have access to a trading screen or my broker's website most of the time. So, most orders would be placed at the start of the day
- Very conservative stop losses. This was the most difficult decision for me. My reasoning is that most people put very conservative stop loss, which in a volatile environment gets triggered very easily. While this may limit thier losses, it would also rule out opportunities for gain in the longer term
- Restrict the trading to the NIFTY and a few stocks that I had been following for a long time. At this time, I've picked 5 of them (Bharti, SAIL, Reliance, TCS and Infosys). All of these are fairly volatile and extremely liquid

I did have a few stomach churning sessions towards the end of last month when I had a buy on NIFTY at 3300. Over the next few days, it dipped to 2300, and I was down by almost a lakh of rupees. I wasn't prepared for such a big loss right at the start, so I broke my rule #1 and paid up the additional margin. Thankfully, the market retraced to 3200 and I was able to exit with a much smaller loss.

Other than that single transaction, it has been a really good month. I've been lucky in making the right calls both on the short and long sides. I know this won't last forever, there will be the inevitable bad call, but as long as I keep my head and not get carried away, I'm hopeful that it will give me some good profits.

Of course, this will never make up for the losses elsewhere, but in a general gloomy outlook, every bit of good news helps.

A new champion is crowned

So, finally one of the most exciting F1 championships ended with Lewis Hamilton being crowned at the very last corner. It was a completely disheartening time for Massa, who initially believed he had won only to lose it at the very last corner as Timo Glock's decision to stay on dry tires backfired.

Though Lewis is a great driver, I feel that Massa deserved it more. He had two sure wins in Hungary and Singapore taken away by other people's mistakes. Lewis by comparision did not have a single retirement. If things had worked out, Massa would have won quite comfortably.

On the whole, bar the occasional race, I found that the F1 races were becoming extremely boring and for the first time in many years, I did not watch a couple of races. The farce of the safety car lottery also made it worse, I'd rather that the cars start overtaking each other on track. Hopefully with the massive change in rules for 2009, we will have a better spectacle.

My picks for the best drivers and races
Races: Canada, Britain, Belgium, Singapore, Brazil. Three of these were rain affected and two were influenced by the safety car. Anyone see a problem here?
Best drivers: Kubica, Vettel, Alonso, Massa, Hamilton
Most underperforming drivers: Kovy, Raikonnen, Bourdais, Button, Fisichella

Nandi Hills ride

I had cycled twice before to Nandi hills, but never done the complete ride from Bangalore and back. The first time, ,I'd started from the Nandi cross on NH-7. The second time, we had started from Bangalore, but could not complete the ride back due to severe headwinds and a puncture. I was determined to complete it fully and finally did it yesterday.

Eight of us started off from Hebbal at 6:30. People kept dropping off and finally when we reached the base of Nandi, there were only 4 of us left. I had two goals on the climb, one to do it nonstop and secondly to avoid using the lowest gear. I achieved the first one, but the second one was too hard especially on the later stages. On the way back, we took the route via Doddballapur to avoid the hot sun and headwinds that are always present on NH-7. We reached Hebbal at 3:30, it was a ride to cherish.

Stats
Total distance: 106 km
Time from Hebbal to Nandi base : 1 hr 50 min
Time to climb to top: 50 min
Time to descend : 12 min 42 sec
Ave speed on descent: 37.5 kmph
Max speed on descent : 67.5 kmph
Time from Nandi base to Hebbal : 2 hr 5 min
Overall ave speed: 21.2 kmph
Ave speed excluding Nandi: 23 kmph